Electricity system security in Jordan: A response for arab uprising

Abstract

Jordan energy sector is characterized by the high dependency on imported energy and high growth rate of energy demands. The location of Jordan in a conflict hot spot makes the energy security of high interest for the Jordanian policy maker. This article investigates the impact of regional conflicts on Jordanian energy sector and tracks the development of electricity system security before and after the first wave of Arab uprising and the turmoil associated with it. An electricity sector security framework consisting of eleven indices is built based on Stirling four properties of energy security, which are durability, stability, robustness and resilience. The framework is used to compare the security of the system in 2018 with 2010. This article argues that the development in the security during the study period is a response of the Arab uprising based on authoritarian learning phenomena. The results are validated by comparing the expected generation costs and CO2 emissions based on actual development with development scenarios found in literature. A forecasting model is reproduced for this purpose. The results of the forecasting model support the conclusion reached by the security framework. This is due to the responsive policies followed by the Jordanian government and the grants given by Gulf countries to enhance Jordan’s stability. It was concluded that even a specific conflict can have negative impacts on the energy sector in a neighboring country in short terms, it can have positive impacts in medium and long term if a rational and sustainable response plan is adopted.