Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

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dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.15488/1142
dc.identifier.uri http://www.repo.uni-hannover.de/handle/123456789/1166
dc.contributor.author Dietrich, J.
dc.contributor.author Schumann, A.H.
dc.contributor.author Redetzky, M.
dc.contributor.author Walther, J.
dc.contributor.author Denhard, M.
dc.contributor.author Wang, Y.
dc.contributor.author Pfuetzner, B.
dc.contributor.author Buettner, U.
dc.date.accessioned 2017-02-07T10:17:29Z
dc.date.available 2017-02-07T10:17:29Z
dc.date.issued 2009
dc.identifier.citation Dietrich, J.; Schumann, A.H.; Redetzky, M.; Walther, J.; Denhard, M. et al.: Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions. In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9 (2009), Nr. 4, S. 1529-1540. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1529-2009
dc.description.abstract Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising. eng
dc.description.sponsorship BMBF/RIMAX
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH
dc.relation.ispartofseries Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9 (2009), Nr. 4
dc.rights CC BY 3.0
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject distributed hydrologic model eng
dc.subject optimization eng
dc.subject simulation eng
dc.subject.ddc 550 | Geowissenschaften ger
dc.subject.ddc 551 | Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie ger
dc.title Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions
dc.type article
dc.type Text
dc.relation.issn 1561-8633
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1529-2009
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue 4
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume 9
dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage 1529
dc.bibliographicCitation.lastPage 1540
dc.description.version publishedVersion
tib.accessRights frei zug�nglich


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