Farm-level risk analysis of German apple production

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Röhrig, Maren Berit Kerstin: Farm-level risk analysis of German apple production. Hannover : Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität, Diss., 2018, IV, 160 S. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15488/3739

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Sum total of downloads: 1,414




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In Germany, apples are the most relevant fruit with respect to both, domestic production and consumption. Weather events and volatile prices make commercial apple production a risky business. Since apple production with an orchard lifetime of around 20 years is a long-term investment, future-oriented risk management is a prerequisite for economic success. In Germany, quality and yield are at risk from adverse weather events such as late frosts and hail. Especially in the south there is an increasing demand for appropriate frost insurance solutions, which were previously only available in neighboring countries. Besides weather-dependent risks, the effects of market risks, i.e. fluctuating sales prices, have to be considered when developing strategies. There are currently no studies on the development of an integrated cultivation strategy for German apple production that take the influence of risks into account. This thesis provides new insights into the risk attitudes and risk perceptions of apple growers – the two determinants of risk behavior. Based on data collected from 134 apple growers in the two main production regions in Germany, a normative analysis is carried out by developing a utility-efficient decision model that indicates how apple growers should protect themselves against risks from a rational point of view. The model reveals which apple varieties and risk management instruments provide the most efficient combinations in apple production for a rational but risk-averse decision maker. The results of the risk attitude analysis show that apple growers in Germany are less risk averse than anticipated. The stochastic dominance analysis is carried out on one hectare level and shows that frost irrigation and subsidized hail insurance are the most efficient instruments in the North, but the common practice of using hail nets remains the most favorable risk management strategy in the South. The results of the whole farm model are in line with these findings and show that the degree of risk aversion has only a minor influence on the portfolio of optimal cultivation strategies. In detail, apple production without frost irrigation may lead to high yield losses in northern Germany and subsidies do not compensate for the monetary loss that can occur in the South due to the lack of hail protection nets.
License of this version: Es gilt deutsches Urheberrecht. Das Dokument darf zum eigenen Gebrauch kostenfrei genutzt, aber nicht im Internet bereitgestellt oder an Außenstehende weitergegeben werden.
Document Type: DoctoralThesis
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2018
Appears in Collections:Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Dissertationen

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pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 608 43.00%
2 image of flag of Czech Republic Czech Republic 156 11.03%
3 image of flag of Russian Federation Russian Federation 144 10.18%
4 image of flag of United States United States 141 9.97%
5 image of flag of No geo information available No geo information available 36 2.55%
6 image of flag of India India 31 2.19%
7 image of flag of China China 23 1.63%
8 image of flag of Netherlands Netherlands 22 1.56%
9 image of flag of Switzerland Switzerland 20 1.41%
10 image of flag of France France 19 1.34%
    other countries 214 15.13%

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