Micro-canonical cascade model: Analyzing parameter changes in the future and their influence on disaggregation results

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dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.15488/3552
dc.identifier.uri https://www.repo.uni-hannover.de:443/handle/123456789/3584
dc.contributor.author Müller, Hannes ger
dc.contributor.author Föt, Annika ger
dc.contributor.author Haberlandt, Uwe ger
dc.date.accessioned 2018-07-24T11:06:28Z
dc.date.available 2018-07-24T11:06:28Z
dc.date.issued 2016
dc.identifier.citation Müller, H.; Föt, A.; Haberlandt, U.: Micro-canonical cascade model: Analyzing parameter changes in the future and their influence on disaggregation results. In: Geophysical Research Abstracts 18 (2016), EGU2016-7760 ger
dc.description.abstract Rainfall time series with a high temporal resolution are needed in many hydrological and water resources management fields. Unfortunately, future climate projections are often available only in low temporal resolutions, e.g. daily values. A possible solution is the disaggregation of these time series using information of high-resolution time series of recording stations. Often, the required parameters for the disaggregation process are applied to future climate without any change, because the change is unknown. For this investigation a multiplicative random cascade model is used. The parameters can be estimated directly from high-resolution time series. Here, time series with hourly resolution generated by the ECHAM5-model and dynamically downscaled with the REMO-model (UBA-, BfG- & ENS-realisation) are used for parameter estimation. The parameters are compared between the past (1971-20000), near-term (2021-2050) and long-term future (2071-2100) for temporal resolutions of 1 h and 8 h. Additionally, the parameters of each period are used for the disaggregation of the other two periods. Afterwards the disaggregated time series are analyzed concerning extreme values representation, event specific characteristics (average wet spell duration and amount) and overall time series characteristics (average intensity and fraction of dry spell events). The aim of the investigation is a) to detect and quantify parameter changes and b) to analyze the influence on the disaggregated time series. The investigation area is Lower Saxony, Germany. ger
dc.language.iso eng ger
dc.publisher München : European Geosciences Union
dc.relation.ispartof Geophysical Research Abstracts 18 (2016) ger
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 ger
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 ger
dc.subject.ddc 550 | Geowissenschaften ger
dc.title Micro-canonical cascade model: Analyzing parameter changes in the future and their influence on disaggregation results ger
dc.type conferenceObject ger
dc.type Text ger
dc.description.version publishedVersion ger
tib.accessRights frei zug�nglich


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