Risk assessment for slope monitoring

Abstract

One main goal of geodetic deformation monitoring and analysis is minimizing the risk of unexpected collapses of artificial objects and geologic hazards. Nowadays, the methodology in applied geodesy and mathematically founded decisions are usually based on probabilities and significance levels but not on the risk (consequences or costs) itself. In this study, a new concept which is based on the utility theory is introduced to the current methodology. It allows the consideration of consequences or costs for geodetic decision making in order to meet the real requirements. In this case, possible decisions are evaluated with cost functions for type I and II errors. Finally, the decision leading to the minimum costs or consequences is chosen as the most beneficial one. This procedure allows also identifying the most beneficial additional measurements to reduce the risk of an individual monitoring process. In the last part, the theoretical concept is applied to an example in slope monitoring.