Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Abstract

This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy. Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain