Analysis Of Uncertainty Over The Factory Life Cycle

Abstract

The cost and performance structure of a factory is determined in factory planning and activated in the operation phase with a time delay. Even though the majority of investments result from structural planning, the first conceptual and most important step in factory planning, the majority of costs occur during factory operation, the longest phase of a factory life cycle. Life cycle-oriented factory planning seeks to anticipate operation in order to increase the performance potential and reduce total costs over the entire factory life cycle. Experience shows that this can reduce total costs by about one-third, 80% of which are unplanned operating costs. Therefore, it is imperative to be aware of possible uncertainties in the course of a factory life cycle as a factory planner. Up to now, there has been an inconsistent understanding in this regard. By definition, the emphasis has been on long-term change drivers influenced by megatrends due to the strategic orientation of factory planning. The current crisis situation illustrates the relevance of an operational view on potential short-term uncertainties. The goal of the paper is to analyze the uncertainty over the factory life cycle in its entirety and to create a common understanding for factory planning so that life cycle-oriented planning and evaluation of factories can be aligned accordingly.