Spatial dimensions of social unrest and armed violence

Abstract

Social unrest and armed violence rewind development achievements in the fight against poverty. This thesis examines various factors contributing to social unrest and armed violence in different parts of a country. A common method of this thesis is the empirical regression analysis of geo-spatial data to explain social unrest and armed violence. I find four results. First, social unrest occurs more likely in areas where droughts coincide with existing ethnic grievances. Second, to identify these grievances, we develop a novel spatial inequality measure between and within ethnic groups. Validation of the inequality measure against perceived differences in identity groups’ economic conditions shows that individuals feel ethnic grievances. Third, competition between armed groups causally increases the level of violence. Finally, there is no evidence that development aid increases civil wars, but Chinese aid seems to increase state repressions and a higher tolerance for autocratic rule. This thesis shows that spatial characteristics can help understand and explain social unrest and armed violence within countries.