The dynamics of stagnation: a panel analysis of the onset and continuation of stagnation

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Bluhm, R.; De Crombrugghe, D.; Szirmai, A.: The dynamics of stagnation: a panel analysis of the onset and continuation of stagnation. In: Macroeconomic Dynamics 20 (2016), Nr. 8, S. 2010-2045. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100515000231

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To cite the version in the repository, please use this identifier: https://doi.org/10.15488/4161

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Sum total of downloads: 98




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Abstract: 
This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test whether stagnation can be predicted by institutional characteristics and political shocks and compare the impacts of such variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants of stagnation episodes using dynamic linear and nonlinear models. In addition, we analyze whether the effects of the included variables on the onset of stagnation differ from their effects on the continuation of stagnation. We find that inflation, negative regime changes, real exchange rate undervaluation, financial openness, and trade openness have significant effects on both the onset and the continuation of stagnation. Only for trade openness is there robust evidence of a differential impact. Open economies have a significantly lower probability of falling into stagnation, but once in stagnation they do not recover faster.
License of this version: Es gilt deutsches Urheberrecht. Das Dokument darf zum eigenen Gebrauch kostenfrei genutzt, aber nicht im Internet bereitgestellt oder an Außenstehende weitergegeben werden. Dieser Beitrag ist aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2016
Appears in Collections:Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät

distribution of downloads over the selected time period:

downloads by country:

pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 42 42.86%
2 image of flag of United States United States 19 19.39%
3 image of flag of China China 7 7.14%
4 image of flag of Netherlands Netherlands 6 6.12%
5 image of flag of Tunisia Tunisia 4 4.08%
6 image of flag of Russian Federation Russian Federation 3 3.06%
7 image of flag of Sweden Sweden 2 2.04%
8 image of flag of Italy Italy 2 2.04%
9 image of flag of Ireland Ireland 2 2.04%
10 image of flag of United Kingdom United Kingdom 2 2.04%
    other countries 9 9.18%

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