Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

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Förster, K.; Hanzer, F.; Stoll, E.; Scaife, A.A.; MacLachlan, C. et al.: Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps). In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 (2018), Nr. 2, S. 1157-1173. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018

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To cite the version in the repository, please use this identifier: https://doi.org/10.15488/3380

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Sum total of downloads: 313




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This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r D0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r D0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.
License of this version: CC BY 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2018
Appears in Collections:Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie

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pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 159 50.80%
2 image of flag of United States United States 63 20.13%
3 image of flag of Brazil Brazil 13 4.15%
4 image of flag of United Kingdom United Kingdom 10 3.19%
5 image of flag of No geo information available No geo information available 8 2.56%
6 image of flag of Netherlands Netherlands 6 1.92%
7 image of flag of China China 6 1.92%
8 image of flag of Switzerland Switzerland 6 1.92%
9 image of flag of Austria Austria 6 1.92%
10 image of flag of Ukraine Ukraine 5 1.60%
    other countries 31 9.90%

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