A Cross-Country Model for End-Use Specific Aggregated Household Load Profiles

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Schlemminger, M.; Niepelt, R.; Brendel, R.: A Cross-Country Model for End-Use Specific Aggregated Household Load Profiles. In: Energies : open-access journal of related scientific research, technology development and studies in policy and management 14 (2021), Nr. 8, 2167. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en14082167

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To cite the version in the repository, please use this identifier: https://doi.org/10.15488/11210

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Sum total of downloads: 801




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Abstract: 
End-use specific residential electricity load profiles are of interest for energy system modelling that requires future load curves or demand-side management. We present a model that is applicable across countries to predict consumption on a regional and national scale, using openly available data. The model uses neural networks (NNs) to correlate measured consumption from one country (United Kingdom) with weather data and daily profiles of a mix of human activity and device specific power profiles. We then use region-specific weather data and time-use surveys as input for the trained NNs to predict unscaled electric load profiles. The total power profile consists of the end-use household load profiles scaled with real consumption. We compare the model’s results with measured and independently simulated profiles of various European countries. The NNs achieve a mean absolute error compared with the average load of 6.5 to 33% for the test set. For Germany, the standard deviation between the simulation, the standard load profile H0, and measurements from the University of Applied Sciences Berlin is 26.5%. Our approach reduces the amount of input data required compared with existing models for modelling region-specific electricity load profiles considering end-uses and seasonality based on weather parameters. Hourly load profiles for 29 European countries based on four historical weather years are distributed under an open license.
License of this version: CC BY 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2021
Appears in Collections:An-Institute

distribution of downloads over the selected time period:

downloads by country:

pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 289 36.08%
2 image of flag of United States United States 141 17.60%
3 image of flag of United Kingdom United Kingdom 30 3.75%
4 image of flag of France France 27 3.37%
5 image of flag of No geo information available No geo information available 24 3.00%
6 image of flag of Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of 22 2.75%
7 image of flag of Israel Israel 21 2.62%
8 image of flag of Turkey Turkey 15 1.87%
9 image of flag of India India 15 1.87%
10 image of flag of Italy Italy 14 1.75%
    other countries 203 25.34%

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