Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities

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Hübler, C.; Rolfes, R.: Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities. In: Wind Energy 24 (2021), Nr. 3, S. 275-289. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2572

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To cite the version in the repository, please use this identifier: https://doi.org/10.15488/10914

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Sum total of downloads: 165




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Abstract: 
When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.
License of this version: CC BY 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2021
Appears in Collections:Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie

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downloads by country:

pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 89 53.94%
2 image of flag of China China 27 16.36%
3 image of flag of United States United States 22 13.33%
4 image of flag of Tanzania, United Republic of Tanzania, United Republic of 5 3.03%
5 image of flag of Indonesia Indonesia 4 2.42%
6 image of flag of United Kingdom United Kingdom 4 2.42%
7 image of flag of Vietnam Vietnam 3 1.82%
8 image of flag of Norway Norway 2 1.21%
9 image of flag of Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of 2 1.21%
10 image of flag of Cyprus Cyprus 1 0.61%
    other countries 6 3.64%

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