Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea

Abstract

External surges are a key component of extreme water levels in the North Sea. Caused by low-pressure cells over the North Atlantic and amplified at the continental shelf, they can drive water-level changes of more than 1m at the British, Dutch and German coasts. This work describes an improved and semi-automated method to detect external surges in sea surface time histories. The method is used to analyse tide gauge and meteorological records from 1995 to 2020 and to supplement an existing dataset of external surges, which is used in the determination of design heights of coastal protection facilities. Furthermore, external surges are analysed with regard to their annual and decadal variability, corresponding weather conditions, and their interaction with storm surges in the North Sea. A total of 33% of the 101 external surges occur within close succession of each other, leading to the definition of serial external surges, in which one or more external surges follow less than 72h after the previous external surge. These serial events tend to occur more often during wind-induced storm surges. Moreover, the co-occurrence with a storm surge increases the height of an external surge by 15% on average, highlighting the importance of the consideration of combined events in coastal protection strategies. The improved dataset and knowledge about serial external surges extend the available basis for coastal protection in the North Sea region.