Network log-ARCH models for forecasting stock market volatility

Download statistics - Document (COUNTER):

Mattera, R.; Otto, P.: Network log-ARCH models for forecasting stock market volatility. In: International Journal of Forecasting (2024), online first. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.01.002

Repository version

To cite the version in the repository, please use this identifier: https://doi.org/10.15488/16852

Selected time period:

year: 
month: 

Sum total of downloads: 4




Thumbnail
Abstract: 
This paper presents a dynamic network autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model suitable for high-dimensional cases where multivariate ARCH models are typically no longer applicable. We adopt the theoretical foundations from spatiotemporal statistics and transfer the dynamic ARCH model processes to networks. The model integrates temporally lagged volatility and information from adjacent nodes, which may instantaneously spill across the entire network. The model is used to forecast volatility in the US stock market, and the edges are determined based on various distance and correlation measures between the time series. The performance of alternative network definitions is compared with independent univariate log-ARCH models in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results indicate that more accurate forecasts are obtained with network-based models and that accuracy can be improved by combining the forecasts of different network definitions. We emphasise the significance for practitioners to integrate network structure information when developing volatility forecasts.
License of this version: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2024
Appears in Collections:Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie

distribution of downloads over the selected time period:

downloads by country:

pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of United States United States 2 50.00%
2 image of flag of Germany Germany 2 50.00%

Further download figures and rankings:


Hinweis

Zur Erhebung der Downloadstatistiken kommen entsprechend dem „COUNTER Code of Practice for e-Resources“ international anerkannte Regeln und Normen zur Anwendung. COUNTER ist eine internationale Non-Profit-Organisation, in der Bibliotheksverbände, Datenbankanbieter und Verlage gemeinsam an Standards zur Erhebung, Speicherung und Verarbeitung von Nutzungsdaten elektronischer Ressourcen arbeiten, welche so Objektivität und Vergleichbarkeit gewährleisten sollen. Es werden hierbei ausschließlich Zugriffe auf die entsprechenden Volltexte ausgewertet, keine Aufrufe der Website an sich.

Search the repository


Browse