Accuracy, probabilism, and the insufficiency of the alethic

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Dethier, C.: Accuracy, probabilism, and the insufficiency of the alethic. In: Philosophical studies : an international journal for philosophy in the analytic tradition 179 (2022), Nr. 7, S. 2285-2301. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-021-01763-5

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The best and most popular argument for probabilism is the accuracy-dominance argument, which purports to show that alethic considerations alone support the view that an agent’s degrees of belief should always obey the axioms of probability. I argue that extant versions of the accuracy-dominance argument face a problem. In order for the mathematics of the argument to function as advertised, we must assume that every omniscient credence function is classically consistent; there can be no worlds in the set of dominance-relevant worlds that obey some other logic. This restriction cannot be motivated on alethic grounds unless we’re also willing to accept that rationality requires belief in every metaphysical necessity, as the distinction between a priori logical necessities and a posteriori metaphysical ones is not an alethic distinction. To justify the restriction to classically consistent worlds, non-alethic motivation is required. And thus, if there is a version of the accuracy-dominance argument in support of probabilism, it isn’t one that is grounded in alethic considerations alone.
License of this version: CC BY 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2021
Appears in Collections:Philosophische Fakultät

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1 image of flag of Germany Germany 11 64.71%
2 image of flag of United States United States 5 29.41%
3 image of flag of Ukraine Ukraine 1 5.88%

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