Assessing and coping with uncertainties in landscape planning: an overview

Abstract

Context: Although uncertainties are ubiquitous in landscape planning, so far, no systematic understanding exists regarding how they should be assessed, appropriately communicated and what impacts they yield on decision support. With increasing interest in the role of uncertainties in science and policy, a synthesis of relevant knowledge is needed to further promote uncertainty assessment in landscape planning practice. Objectives: The aim of this paper is to synthesize knowledge about types of uncertainties in landscape planning, of methods to assess these uncertainties, and of approaches for appropriately coping with them. Methods: The paper is based on a qualitative literature review of relevant papers identified in the ISI Web of Knowledge and supplemented by frequently cited publications. The identification and synthesis of relevant information was guided by a developed framework concerning uncertainty in landscape planning. Results: The main types of uncertainties identified in landscape planning are data-, model-, projection- and evaluation uncertainty. Various methods to address these uncertainties have been identified, including statistical methods for the assessment of uncertainties in planning approaches that help to cope with uncertainties. The integration of uncertainty assessments into landscape planning results is lacking. Conclusions: The assessment of uncertainties in landscape planning have been addressed by science, but what is missing are considerations and ideas on how to use this knowledge to foster uncertainty analysis in landscape planning practice. More research is needed on how the application of identified approaches into landscape planning practice can be achieved and how these results might affect decision makers.