Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - A synthesis

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dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.15488/2640
dc.identifier.uri http://www.repo.uni-hannover.de/handle/123456789/2666
dc.contributor.author Krysanova, Valentina
dc.contributor.author Vetter, Tobias
dc.contributor.author Eisner, Stephanie
dc.contributor.author Huang, Shaochun
dc.contributor.author Pechlivanidis, Ilias
dc.contributor.author Strauch, Michael
dc.contributor.author Gelfan, Alexander
dc.contributor.author Kumar, Rohini
dc.contributor.author Aich, Valentin
dc.contributor.author Arheimer, Berit
dc.contributor.author Chamorro, Alejandro
dc.contributor.author van Griensven, Ann
dc.contributor.author Kundu, Dipangkar
dc.contributor.author Lobanova, Anastasia
dc.contributor.author Mishra, Vimal
dc.contributor.author Plötner, Stefan
dc.contributor.author Reinhardt, Julia
dc.contributor.author Seidou, Ousmane
dc.contributor.author Wang, Xiaoyan
dc.contributor.author Wortmann, Michel
dc.contributor.author Zeng, Xiaofan
dc.contributor.author Hattermann, Fred F.
dc.date.accessioned 2018-01-19T12:03:35Z
dc.date.available 2018-01-19T12:03:35Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.identifier.citation Krysanova, V.; Vetter, T.; Eisner, S.; Huang, S.; Pechlivanidis, I. et al.: Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - A synthesis. In: Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017), Nr. 10, 105002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359
dc.description.abstract An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models. eng
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Bristol : Institute of Physics Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofseries Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017), Nr. 10
dc.rights CC BY 3.0
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject climate change impact eng
dc.subject evaluation of uncertainties eng
dc.subject evaluation ofmodel performance eng
dc.subject intercomparison eng
dc.subject large river basins eng
dc.subject regional-scale hydrologicalmodels eng
dc.subject Climate models eng
dc.subject Electric power system interconnection eng
dc.subject Flood control eng
dc.subject Hydrology eng
dc.subject Rivers eng
dc.subject Stream flow eng
dc.subject Watersheds eng
dc.subject Climate change impact eng
dc.subject evaluation of uncertainties eng
dc.subject evaluation ofmodel performance eng
dc.subject Intercomparisons eng
dc.subject Large rivers eng
dc.subject Regional scale eng
dc.subject Climate change eng
dc.subject climate change eng
dc.subject climate effect eng
dc.subject flood eng
dc.subject hydrological modeling eng
dc.subject precipitation (climatology) eng
dc.subject river basin eng
dc.subject river discharge eng
dc.subject seasonality eng
dc.subject snowmelt eng
dc.subject streamflow eng
dc.subject uncertainty analysis eng
dc.subject Africa eng
dc.subject Asia eng
dc.subject Europe eng
dc.subject Hepatitis B virus eng
dc.subject.ddc 550 | Geowissenschaften ger
dc.title Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - A synthesis
dc.type article
dc.type Text
dc.relation.issn 17489318
dc.relation.doi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue 10
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume 12
dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage 105002
dc.description.version publishedVersion
tib.accessRights frei zug�nglich


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