Use of past precipitation data for regionalisation of hourly rainfall in the low mountain ranges of saxony, germany

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dc.identifier.uri Pluntke, T. Jatho, N. Kurbjuhn, C. Dietrich, J. Bernhofer, C. 2017-02-07T09:43:50Z 2017-02-07T09:43:50Z 2010
dc.identifier.citation Pluntke, T.; Jatho, N.; Kurbjuhn, C.; Dietrich, J.; Bernhofer, C.: Use of past precipitation data for regionalisation of hourly rainfall in the low mountain ranges of saxony, germany. In: Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences 10 (2010), Nr. 2, S. 353-370. DOI:
dc.description.abstract Within the context of flood forecasting we deal with the improvement of regionalisation methods for the generation of highly resolved (1 h, 1x1km(2)) precipitation fields, which can be used as input for rainfall-runoff models or for verification of weather forecasts. Although radar observations of precipitation are available in many regions, it might be necessary to apply regionalisation methods near real-time for the cases that radar is not available or observations are of low quality. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether past precipitation information can be used to improve regionalisation of rainfall. Within a case study we determined typical precipitation Background-Fields (BGF) for the mountainous and hilly regions of Saxony using hourly and daily rain gauge data. Additionally, calibrated radar data served as past information for the BGF generation. For regionalisation of precipitation we used de-trended kriging and compared the results with another kriging based regionalisation method and with Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW). The performance of the methods was assessed by applying cross-validation, by inspection and by evaluation with rainfall-runoff simulations. The regionalisation of rainfall yielded better results in case of advective events than in case of convective events. The performance of the applied regionalisation methods showed no significant disagreement for different precipitation types. Cross-validation results were rather similar in most cases. Subjectively judged, the BGF-method reproduced best the structures of rain cells. Precipitation input derived from radar or kriging resulted in a better matching between observed and simulated flood hydrographs. Simple techniques like IDW also deliver satisfying results in some occasions. Implementation of past radar data into the BGF-method rendered no improvement, because of data shortages. Thus, no method proved to outperform the others generally. The decision, which method is appropriate for an event, should be made objectively using cross-validation, but also subjectively, using the expert knowledge of the forecaster. eng
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH
dc.relation.ispartofseries Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences 10 (2010), Nr. 2
dc.rights CC BY 3.0
dc.subject spatial interpolation eng
dc.subject stochastic interpolation eng
dc.subject radar eng
dc.subject simulation eng
dc.subject gauges eng
dc.subject model eng
dc.subject variability eng
dc.subject sensitivity eng
dc.subject resolution eng
dc.subject runoff eng
dc.subject.ddc 550 | Geowissenschaften ger
dc.title Use of past precipitation data for regionalisation of hourly rainfall in the low mountain ranges of saxony, germany
dc.type article
dc.type Text
dc.relation.issn 1561-8633
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue 2
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume 10
dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage 353
dc.bibliographicCitation.lastPage 370
dc.description.version publishedVersion
tib.accessRights frei zug�nglich

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