Practical issues in handling data input and uncertainty in a budget impact analysis

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Nuijten, M.J.C.; Mittendorf, T.; Persson, U.: Practical issues in handling data input and uncertainty in a budget impact analysis. In: European Journal of Health Economics 12 (2011), Nr. 3, S. 231-241. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-010-0236-4

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Sum total of downloads: 179




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The objective of this paper was to address the importance of dealing systematically and comprehensively with uncertainty in a budget impact analysis (BIA) in more detail. The handling of uncertainty in health economics was used as a point of reference for addressing the uncertainty in a BIA. This overview shows that standard methods of sensitivity analysis, which are used for standard data set in a health economic model (clinical probabilities, treatment patterns, resource utilisation and prices/tariffs), cannot always be used for the input data for the BIA model beyond the health economic data set for various reasons. Whereas in a health economic model, only limited data may come from a Delphi panel, a BIA model often relies on a majority of data taken from a Delphi panel. In addition, the dataset in a BIA model also includes forecasts (e.g. annual growth, uptakes curves, substitution effects, changes in prescription restrictions and guidelines, future distribution of the available treatment modalities, off-label use). As a consequence, the use of standard sensitivity analyses for BIA data set might be limited because of the lack of appropriate distributions as data sources are limited, or because of the need for forecasting. Therefore, scenario analyses might be more appropriate to capture the uncertainty in the BIA data set in the overall BIA model.
License of this version: CC BY-NC 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2011
Appears in Collections:Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät

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pos. country downloads
total perc.
1 image of flag of Germany Germany 115 64.25%
2 image of flag of United States United States 42 23.46%
3 image of flag of China China 8 4.47%
4 image of flag of No geo information available No geo information available 2 1.12%
5 image of flag of Netherlands Netherlands 2 1.12%
6 image of flag of Czech Republic Czech Republic 2 1.12%
7 image of flag of Canada Canada 2 1.12%
8 image of flag of Russian Federation Russian Federation 1 0.56%
9 image of flag of Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of 1 0.56%
10 image of flag of Chile Chile 1 0.56%
    other countries 3 1.68%

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