Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis of structure by combining adaptive linked importance sampling and Kriging reliability method

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Liu, F.; Wei, P.; Zhou, C.; Yue, Z.: Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis of structure by combining adaptive linked importance sampling and Kriging reliability method. In: Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 33 (2020), Nr. 4, S. 1218-1227. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cja.2019.12.032

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The application of reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis methods to complicated structures faces two main challenges: small failure probability (typical less than 10−5) and time-demanding mechanical models. This paper proposes an improved active learning surrogate model method, which combines the advantages of the classical Active Kriging – Monte Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) procedure and the Adaptive Linked Importance Sampling (ALIS) procedure. The proposed procedure can, on the one hand, adaptively produce a series of intermediate sampling density approaching the quasi-optimal Importance Sampling (IS) density, on the other hand, adaptively generate a set of intermediate surrogate models approaching the true failure surface of the rare failure event. Then, the small failure probability and the corresponding reliability sensitivity indices are efficiently estimated by their IS estimators based on the quasi-optimal IS density and the surrogate models. Compared with the classical AK-MCS and Active Kriging – Importance Sampling (AK-IS) procedure, the proposed method neither need to build very large sample pool even when the failure probability is extremely small, nor need to estimate the Most Probable Points (MPPs), thus it is computationally more efficient and more applicable especially for problems with multiple MPPs. The effectiveness and engineering applicability of the proposed method are demonstrated by one numerical test example and two engineering applications.
License of this version: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Unported
Document Type: Article
Publishing status: publishedVersion
Issue Date: 2020
Appears in Collections:Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie

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1 image of flag of United States United States 7 41.18%
2 image of flag of Germany Germany 6 35.29%
3 image of flag of Tanzania, United Republic of Tanzania, United Republic of 1 5.88%
4 image of flag of Turkey Turkey 1 5.88%
5 image of flag of Israel Israel 1 5.88%
6 image of flag of France France 1 5.88%

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